作者Jian Zhu, Yuzheng Zhang, Zeyao Ma, Bohan Zhang, Armin Schoepf, Daniel Woloch, Peter Yiliu Wang, Guangyu Robert Yang, Samuel Jacob, Siddharth Nagisetty, Abhiram Chundru, Jean Lin, Spencer Mateega, Jing Zhang
Spreadsheets are widely used for business analysis, financial modeling, reporting, and decision-making. However, most existing spreadsheet benchmarks evaluate isolated operations such as single-formula generation or local cell edits, and therefore fail to capture end-to-end workflows in realistic business settings. We introduce \textsc{SpreadsheetBench 2}, a workflow-level benchmark for spreadsheet agents that covers three task categories: generation, debugging, and visualization. The benchmark is constructed from authentic business data, including financial reports and corporate filings, and is annotated and validated by domain experts. The benchmark contains 321 tasks; each instance averages 11.8 worksheets and requires 593.5 cell modifications, reflecting large multi-sheet workbooks with cross-sheet dependencies. We evaluate eight frontier large language models under a unified multi-turn agent scaffold, and additionally include several LLM-based spreadsheet products as complementary baselines. Results show that current systems remain far from reliable on real-world workflows: the best model achieves 34.89% overall task accuracy, and debugging accuracy is as low as 12.00%. Trajectory analysis and a failure taxonomy further indicate that insufficient spreadsheet inspection and incorrect target-cell selection are the dominant bottlenecks. Together, these findings position \textsc{SpreadsheetBench 2} as a challenging testbed for advancing reliable spreadsheet automation. Project page: https://spreadsheetbench.github.io/
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Spreadsheets are widely used for business analysis, financial modeling, reporting, and decision-making. However, most existing spreadsheet benchmarks evaluate isolated operations such as single-formula generation or local cell edits, and therefore fail to capture end-to-end workflows in realistic business settings. We introduce \textsc{SpreadsheetBench 2}, a workflow-level benchmark for spreadsheet agents that covers three task categories: generation, debugging, and visualization. The benchmark is constructed from authentic business data, including financial reports and corporate filings, and is annotated and validated by domain experts. The benchmark contains 321 tasks; each instance averages 11.8 worksheets and requires 593.5 cell modifications, reflecting large multi-sheet workbooks with cross-sheet dependencies. We evaluate eight frontier large language models under a unified multi-turn agent scaffold, and additionally include several LLM-based spreadsheet products as complementary baselines. Results show that current systems remain far from reliable on real-world workflows: the best model achieves 34.89% overall task accuracy, and debugging accuracy is as low as 12.00%. Trajectory analysis and a failure taxonomy further indicate that insufficient spreadsheet inspection and incorrect target-cell selection are the dominant bottlenecks. Together, these findings position \textsc{SpreadsheetBench 2} as a challenging testbed for advancing reliable spreadsheet automation. Project page: https://spreadsheetbench.github.io/
Long-horizon strategic planning in complex strategy games demands concurrent reasoning across multiple decision domains under imperfect information and sparse reward. Existing LLM-based agents suffer from three systematic failures: scene blindness from raw tile coordinates, context overflow and domain coupling from monolithic state dumps, and shallow cross-game learning that treats each episode in isolation. We present SAGA, an LLM multi-agent framework with three mechanisms each directly targeting one class of failure: (i) a Map-Semantic Scene Graph that encodes typed spatial relations among game entities into per-unit natural-language context, resolving spatial blindness without global token inflation; (ii) a Tool-Augmented Planner that pulls fine-grained domain state on demand and dispatches per-domain directives to dedicated specialist controllers, eliminating context overflow, domain coupling, and mechanical constraint violations; and (iii) a Dual-Horizon Feedback Loop that combines periodic within-game goal generation with structured cross-game causal post-mortem, enabling principled strategic evolution without manual reward engineering. Evaluated on FreeCiv, SAGA attains the highest mean civilization score — the environment's sole sparse objective reward — with lower variance than the two strongest baselines, and is the only method that significantly surpasses every baseline on infrastructure construction, the resource axis most readily sacrificed under multi-objective conflict. It outscores the two strongest baselines in most head-to-head games while cutting output tokens (the dominant decoding cost) by 27%. Equipped with the cross-game evolution module, SAGA reaches the highest end-of-chain score across five successive episodes. Ablation studies confirm that each architectural component contributes independently to this advantage.
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Long-horizon strategic planning in complex strategy games demands concurrent reasoning across multiple decision domains under imperfect information and sparse reward. Existing LLM-based agents suffer from three systematic failures: scene blindness from raw tile coordinates, context overflow and domain coupling from monolithic state dumps, and shallow cross-game learning that treats each episode in isolation. We present SAGA, an LLM multi-agent framework with three mechanisms each directly targeting one class of failure: (i) a Map-Semantic Scene Graph that encodes typed spatial relations among game entities into per-unit natural-language context, resolving spatial blindness without global token inflation; (ii) a Tool-Augmented Planner that pulls fine-grained domain state on demand and dispatches per-domain directives to dedicated specialist controllers, eliminating context overflow, domain coupling, and mechanical constraint violations; and (iii) a Dual-Horizon Feedback Loop that combines periodic within-game goal generation with structured cross-game causal post-mortem, enabling principled strategic evolution without manual reward engineering. Evaluated on FreeCiv, SAGA attains the highest mean civilization score — the environment's sole sparse objective reward — with lower variance than the two strongest baselines, and is the only method that significantly surpasses every baseline on infrastructure construction, the resource axis most readily sacrificed under multi-objective conflict. It outscores the two strongest baselines in most head-to-head games while cutting output tokens (the dominant decoding cost) by 27%. Equipped with the cross-game evolution module, SAGA reaches the highest end-of-chain score across five successive episodes. Ablation studies confirm that each architectural component contributes independently to this advantage.
LLM agents are increasingly cast as autonomous portfolio managers, and benchmarks have moved from financial question-answering to sequential trading. Yet most still rank agents by returns over a fixed window — a weak proxy, since a period's return is dominated by the market path and apparent alpha can dissolve once look-ahead leakage is controlled. Such a ranking certifies neither sound reasoning, nor a consistent strategy, nor a durable edge. We introduce CLQT, which reframes closed-loop trading evaluation as diagnosis rather than ranking: an instrument that localizes where and why an agent's process succeeds or fails. CLQT is a fully closed-loop, cost-aware, strategy-consistent, temporally-gated environment whose agents run a five-stage cycle: gather, synthesize, allocate, execute, reflect. Each round emits a complete DecisionRound sealed into a recompute-verifiable hash chain, so every metric is reconstructable from the trail. Six pillars form the substrate: a hard TimeGate, institutional transaction- and financing-cost modeling, strategy-consistency scoring, three-tier memory, a Model-Context-Protocol tool layer, and mandate-aware synthesis. The same agent runs as a constrained committee of specialized roles or a single full-autonomy orchestrator, making process scaffolding an experimental variable. From the audit trail we compute a five-axis capability scorecard (APM-CS: Coherence, Acuity, Composure, Discipline, Reliability), with Coherence judged partly by a held-out, out-of-cohort LLM to curb self-preference bias. We validate it on a contamination-controlled multi-model backtest with an ablation grid and a live broker track on unseen, post-cutoff data, against a repeated-run noise floor. CLQT separates outcome from capability, yielding not a model ranking but a durable, extensible map of agent competencies and limitations.
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LLM agents are increasingly cast as autonomous portfolio managers, and benchmarks have moved from financial question-answering to sequential trading. Yet most still rank agents by returns over a fixed window — a weak proxy, since a period's return is dominated by the market path and apparent alpha can dissolve once look-ahead leakage is controlled. Such a ranking certifies neither sound reasoning, nor a consistent strategy, nor a durable edge. We introduce CLQT, which reframes closed-loop trading evaluation as diagnosis rather than ranking: an instrument that localizes where and why an agent's process succeeds or fails. CLQT is a fully closed-loop, cost-aware, strategy-consistent, temporally-gated environment whose agents run a five-stage cycle: gather, synthesize, allocate, execute, reflect. Each round emits a complete DecisionRound sealed into a recompute-verifiable hash chain, so every metric is reconstructable from the trail. Six pillars form the substrate: a hard TimeGate, institutional transaction- and financing-cost modeling, strategy-consistency scoring, three-tier memory, a Model-Context-Protocol tool layer, and mandate-aware synthesis. The same agent runs as a constrained committee of specialized roles or a single full-autonomy orchestrator, making process scaffolding an experimental variable. From the audit trail we compute a five-axis capability scorecard (APM-CS: Coherence, Acuity, Composure, Discipline, Reliability), with Coherence judged partly by a held-out, out-of-cohort LLM to curb self-preference bias. We validate it on a contamination-controlled multi-model backtest with an ablation grid and a live broker track on unseen, post-cutoff data, against a repeated-run noise floor. CLQT separates outcome from capability, yielding not a model ranking but a durable, extensible map of agent competencies and limitations.
作者Maria Xenochristou, Ashutosh Joshi, Korosh Vatanparvar, Mohammad Abuzar Hashemi, Prasad Kasu, Deepak Bansal, Anchal Nema, Nivedita Wadhwa, Prashams S Jain, Rebecca Abraham, Will Kimbrough, Dilek Hakkani-Tur, Wilko Schulz-Mahlendorf
Recent advances in large language models and vision-language models have enabled reasoning over multimodal data, offering opportunities for clinical applications such as decision support and triaging. However, existing medical AI benchmarks are fragmented: some support multi-turn dialogues but lack images, while others provide multimodal inputs but focus on single-turn QA tasks. To address this gap, we introduce IMCBench, an image-grounded, multi-turn medical conversation benchmark that pairs real, publicly available clinical images with synthetic patient profiles to simulate realistic patient-clinician interactions. Each conversation is evaluated across three clinical dimensions: safety, accuracy, and appropriate use of uncertainty in diagnosis. We benchmark eight multimodal frontier models across four model families (Claude, GPT, Nova, and Llama), scoring each on a 1-5 scale using LLM-as-Jury scoring calibrated against expert clinician annotations. Our results show that Claude Opus 4.6 achieves the highest overall score (3.61), followed by Claude Sonnet 4.6 (3.30) and GPT-5.2 (3.29), though no model dominates all dimensions and safety degrades for both malignant and rare conditions ($Δ$ = -0.27 each). Ablation studies further reveal that both visual input and EHR context contribute to safe guidance (safety drops of 0.18 and 0.23 on average when each is removed), with stronger models leveraging visual features more effectively. Together, these findings demonstrate that accurate clinical description does not guarantee safe patient guidance, motivating the need for multi-dimensional evaluation frameworks in medical AI.
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Recent advances in large language models and vision-language models have enabled reasoning over multimodal data, offering opportunities for clinical applications such as decision support and triaging. However, existing medical AI benchmarks are fragmented: some support multi-turn dialogues but lack images, while others provide multimodal inputs but focus on single-turn QA tasks. To address this gap, we introduce IMCBench, an image-grounded, multi-turn medical conversation benchmark that pairs real, publicly available clinical images with synthetic patient profiles to simulate realistic patient-clinician interactions. Each conversation is evaluated across three clinical dimensions: safety, accuracy, and appropriate use of uncertainty in diagnosis. We benchmark eight multimodal frontier models across four model families (Claude, GPT, Nova, and Llama), scoring each on a 1-5 scale using LLM-as-Jury scoring calibrated against expert clinician annotations. Our results show that Claude Opus 4.6 achieves the highest overall score (3.61), followed by Claude Sonnet 4.6 (3.30) and GPT-5.2 (3.29), though no model dominates all dimensions and safety degrades for both malignant and rare conditions ($Δ$ = -0.27 each). Ablation studies further reveal that both visual input and EHR context contribute to safe guidance (safety drops of 0.18 and 0.23 on average when each is removed), with stronger models leveraging visual features more effectively. Together, these findings demonstrate that accurate clinical description does not guarantee safe patient guidance, motivating the need for multi-dimensional evaluation frameworks in medical AI.
作者Deep Ghosal, Ishani Sen, Wazib Ansar, Amlan Chakrabarti
Athlete assessment is a critical process for tracking physical progress and identifying elite talent. However, during mass recruitment drives, traditional methods rely on manual observation, which is inherently subjective and unscalable, or basic computer vision (CV) systems limited to quantitative repetition counting. These standard approaches lack the "coaching intelligence" required to evaluate qualitative physiological markers such as form degradation, spinal articulation, and fatigue. This paper presents a novel, LLM-based hybrid agentic framework for automated, holistic athlete profiling that strictly aligns with the Sports Authority of India (SAI) assessment protocols. Orchestrated via LangGraph, our dual-pipeline architecture synthesizes the geometric precision of CV (MediaPipe) for kinematic tracking with the semantic reasoning of Vision-Language Models (Llama-4-scout). To overcome the latency and token constraints associated with multimodal video processing, we introduce a 3 X 3 "Smart Grid" temporal chunking strategy, reducing computational overhead by over 88% while preserving critical temporal continuity. To ensure data integrity and mitigate hallucination, the framework pioneers an autonomous "LLM-as-a-Judge" self-correction loop that cross-references quantitative and qualitative metrics before persistence. Finally, we implement a dual-persistence Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) pipeline utilizing a vector search engine (ChromaDB). This enables coaches to bypass rigid SQL databases and perform complex semantic queries (e.g., "Identify athletes with high endurance but poor core rigidity") using natural language. Experimental results demonstrate that this multi-agent approach significantly bridges the gap between raw biometric tracking and actionable coaching insights, offering a scalable, objective solution for national talent identification.
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Athlete assessment is a critical process for tracking physical progress and identifying elite talent. However, during mass recruitment drives, traditional methods rely on manual observation, which is inherently subjective and unscalable, or basic computer vision (CV) systems limited to quantitative repetition counting. These standard approaches lack the "coaching intelligence" required to evaluate qualitative physiological markers such as form degradation, spinal articulation, and fatigue. This paper presents a novel, LLM-based hybrid agentic framework for automated, holistic athlete profiling that strictly aligns with the Sports Authority of India (SAI) assessment protocols. Orchestrated via LangGraph, our dual-pipeline architecture synthesizes the geometric precision of CV (MediaPipe) for kinematic tracking with the semantic reasoning of Vision-Language Models (Llama-4-scout). To overcome the latency and token constraints associated with multimodal video processing, we introduce a 3 X 3 "Smart Grid" temporal chunking strategy, reducing computational overhead by over 88% while preserving critical temporal continuity. To ensure data integrity and mitigate hallucination, the framework pioneers an autonomous "LLM-as-a-Judge" self-correction loop that cross-references quantitative and qualitative metrics before persistence. Finally, we implement a dual-persistence Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) pipeline utilizing a vector search engine (ChromaDB). This enables coaches to bypass rigid SQL databases and perform complex semantic queries (e.g., "Identify athletes with high endurance but poor core rigidity") using natural language. Experimental results demonstrate that this multi-agent approach significantly bridges the gap between raw biometric tracking and actionable coaching insights, offering a scalable, objective solution for national talent identification.
作者Jimmy Laurence Rippin, Simon C. Marshall, David Demitri Africa, Christian Schroeder de Witt
Increasingly autonomous agentic AI systems pose novel multi-agent risks, such as secret collusion via covert communication channels. The natural defence to these collusion attempts is to monitor plain-text communication, but the efficacy of monitors has been called into doubt by increasingly sophisticated model steganography; indeed, some theoretical schemes have been proposed that are information-theoretically or computationally indistinguishable from good-faith plain-text communication. In this paper, we demonstrate that the complexity of these schemes is no longer a safety barrier, as agentic coding models can already produce undetectable stegosystems when given realistic tool usage, such as code execution or accessing research papers through web searches. Agents also adapt when key ingredients are missing, for example, by adding model-sampling components or implementing related keyed coding schemes. We then frame tacit steganographic coordination between agents as a Schelling-point problem and introduce coordination metrics for estimating when two agents are likely to select compatible schemes without explicit prior agreement. Our results suggest a shift in the threat model for covert communication between AI agents, where the main barrier is no longer whether frontier agents can understand and implement sophisticated stegosystems, but coordination: whether independently acting agents can converge on compatible schemes, keys, and parameters. We find substantial convergence on broad scheme families but limited strict one-shot coordination, suggesting that shared artefacts, repeated interaction, and tool-mediated search are the settings where covert communication risks are most acute. Overall, our findings provide empirical grounding for the recent strategic confinement hypothesis, which assumes that capable agents can construct covert channels that survive monitoring.
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Increasingly autonomous agentic AI systems pose novel multi-agent risks, such as secret collusion via covert communication channels. The natural defence to these collusion attempts is to monitor plain-text communication, but the efficacy of monitors has been called into doubt by increasingly sophisticated model steganography; indeed, some theoretical schemes have been proposed that are information-theoretically or computationally indistinguishable from good-faith plain-text communication. In this paper, we demonstrate that the complexity of these schemes is no longer a safety barrier, as agentic coding models can already produce undetectable stegosystems when given realistic tool usage, such as code execution or accessing research papers through web searches. Agents also adapt when key ingredients are missing, for example, by adding model-sampling components or implementing related keyed coding schemes. We then frame tacit steganographic coordination between agents as a Schelling-point problem and introduce coordination metrics for estimating when two agents are likely to select compatible schemes without explicit prior agreement. Our results suggest a shift in the threat model for covert communication between AI agents, where the main barrier is no longer whether frontier agents can understand and implement sophisticated stegosystems, but coordination: whether independently acting agents can converge on compatible schemes, keys, and parameters. We find substantial convergence on broad scheme families but limited strict one-shot coordination, suggesting that shared artefacts, repeated interaction, and tool-mediated search are the settings where covert communication risks are most acute. Overall, our findings provide empirical grounding for the recent strategic confinement hypothesis, which assumes that capable agents can construct covert channels that survive monitoring.
作者Utkarsh Sahu, Zhisheng Qi, Li Zhu, Yizhao Yang, Jun Li, Ryan Rossi, Yu Wang
Social media popularity prediction aims to forecast the future reach or influence of online content from early-stage observations. Accurate prediction enables key downstream applications, such as advertising optimization and strategic content planning by users, creators, and platforms. Despite substantial progress, existing popularity prediction works often fail to jointly consider multimodal content and temporal social interaction signals. Moreover, the literature remains highly fragmented across datasets, modalities, observation windows, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols. This fragmentation prevents fair comparison and obscures a systematic understanding of how textual, visual, temporal, and interaction-based signals jointly shape popularity dynamics. To address these challenges, we introduce MMG-Pop, a Multi-modal Graph-based Popularity Prediction benchmark, which unifies datasets, modalities, temporal interaction signals, and representative baselines under a standardized evaluation protocol. Furthermore, we propose MMG-PopNet, a unified multi-modal graph-based network that jointly models the aforementioned multi-modal signals and graph-structured social interactions. Extensive experiments on MMG-Pop, comprising four datasets across Bluesky and Reddit platforms, demonstrate the superior performance of MMG-PopNet and yield new insights into cross-platform training generalization, multi-task prediction benefits, multi-modality contributions, and LLM prediction limitation. These findings establish a unified foundation for future research on social dynamics modeling and intervention under heterogeneous modalities and socially-aware agentic ecosystem paradigms.
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Social media popularity prediction aims to forecast the future reach or influence of online content from early-stage observations. Accurate prediction enables key downstream applications, such as advertising optimization and strategic content planning by users, creators, and platforms. Despite substantial progress, existing popularity prediction works often fail to jointly consider multimodal content and temporal social interaction signals. Moreover, the literature remains highly fragmented across datasets, modalities, observation windows, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols. This fragmentation prevents fair comparison and obscures a systematic understanding of how textual, visual, temporal, and interaction-based signals jointly shape popularity dynamics. To address these challenges, we introduce MMG-Pop, a Multi-modal Graph-based Popularity Prediction benchmark, which unifies datasets, modalities, temporal interaction signals, and representative baselines under a standardized evaluation protocol. Furthermore, we propose MMG-PopNet, a unified multi-modal graph-based network that jointly models the aforementioned multi-modal signals and graph-structured social interactions. Extensive experiments on MMG-Pop, comprising four datasets across Bluesky and Reddit platforms, demonstrate the superior performance of MMG-PopNet and yield new insights into cross-platform training generalization, multi-task prediction benefits, multi-modality contributions, and LLM prediction limitation. These findings establish a unified foundation for future research on social dynamics modeling and intervention under heterogeneous modalities and socially-aware agentic ecosystem paradigms.
Web-agent benchmarks overwhelmingly measure depth — pinning one obscure answer behind a chain of constraints — while breadth, exhaustively enumerating a closed set and filling each item's attributes, is barely evaluated, especially outside English. Breadth is also hard to build: certifying that a gold set is complete and every cell correct is far costlier than checking a single answer. I introduce \textsc{Ko-WideSearch}, a Korean breadth-search benchmark built by an automated synthesize-and-verify pipeline. Each task names a set-parent entity — a TV season, a dynasty, a league, an administrative region, an election — and asks for its full membership plus a per-item attribute table, graded by Item-, Column-, and Row-F1. It spans 228 tables over 190 entities and sixteen categories across three difficulty tiers, set by two structural knobs I dial independently — table width and a 2-D composite key — so cross-product membership climbs from 0% to 100% across the tiers. A single normalization-aware comparator is shared between gold construction and grading, so stable date and count columns are not over-dropped on formatting alone. Across twenty web agents, the failure is consistent: agents recover the set but not the rows (e.g.\ Item-F1 92.8 against Row-F1 53.7), accuracy falls steadily as the knobs harden, and neither more search nor more spend closes the gap. Broken down by cell, the hard part is finding the right value, not formatting it: open-ended free-text cells fail most, while cells with a standard answer such as a date or a name usually come out right.
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Web-agent benchmarks overwhelmingly measure depth — pinning one obscure answer behind a chain of constraints — while breadth, exhaustively enumerating a closed set and filling each item's attributes, is barely evaluated, especially outside English. Breadth is also hard to build: certifying that a gold set is complete and every cell correct is far costlier than checking a single answer. I introduce \textsc{Ko-WideSearch}, a Korean breadth-search benchmark built by an automated synthesize-and-verify pipeline. Each task names a set-parent entity — a TV season, a dynasty, a league, an administrative region, an election — and asks for its full membership plus a per-item attribute table, graded by Item-, Column-, and Row-F1. It spans 228 tables over 190 entities and sixteen categories across three difficulty tiers, set by two structural knobs I dial independently — table width and a 2-D composite key — so cross-product membership climbs from 0% to 100% across the tiers. A single normalization-aware comparator is shared between gold construction and grading, so stable date and count columns are not over-dropped on formatting alone. Across twenty web agents, the failure is consistent: agents recover the set but not the rows (e.g.\ Item-F1 92.8 against Row-F1 53.7), accuracy falls steadily as the knobs harden, and neither more search nor more spend closes the gap. Broken down by cell, the hard part is finding the right value, not formatting it: open-ended free-text cells fail most, while cells with a standard answer such as a date or a name usually come out right.
Large language model (LLM) agents have demonstrated strong capability in sequential decision-making, yet they remains fundamentally reactive in long-horizon tasks. Unlike humans who employ "what-if" reasoning to evaluate potential plans before commitment, standard agents lack an internal world model to simulate future outcomes. Therefore, we propose to internalize future-aware planning by training a single autoregressive model to verbalize both a prospective state rollout and a plan-conditioned success estimate-a textual analogue of the Q-value. Crucially, we identify a format-capability gap: simply fine-tuning agents on look-ahead traces during post-training leads to superficial mimicry of foresight without genuine predictive grounding. To bridge this gap, we introduce a three-stage training paradigm: (i) World Model Agentic Mid-Training (WM-AMT) to inject latent predictive capabilities into the policy; (ii) Format-Eliciting SFT (FE-SFT) to structure this injected capability; and (iii) Foresight-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning (FC-RL) to refine the calibration and utility of the generated simulations. Evaluated on search and mathematical reasoning tasks, our approach consistently outperforms other training baselines. Our results demonstrate that effective internal world modeling in LLM agents requires a capability-first training pipeline to achieve grounded and calibrated foresight.
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Large language model (LLM) agents have demonstrated strong capability in sequential decision-making, yet they remains fundamentally reactive in long-horizon tasks. Unlike humans who employ "what-if" reasoning to evaluate potential plans before commitment, standard agents lack an internal world model to simulate future outcomes. Therefore, we propose to internalize future-aware planning by training a single autoregressive model to verbalize both a prospective state rollout and a plan-conditioned success estimate-a textual analogue of the Q-value. Crucially, we identify a format-capability gap: simply fine-tuning agents on look-ahead traces during post-training leads to superficial mimicry of foresight without genuine predictive grounding. To bridge this gap, we introduce a three-stage training paradigm: (i) World Model Agentic Mid-Training (WM-AMT) to inject latent predictive capabilities into the policy; (ii) Format-Eliciting SFT (FE-SFT) to structure this injected capability; and (iii) Foresight-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning (FC-RL) to refine the calibration and utility of the generated simulations. Evaluated on search and mathematical reasoning tasks, our approach consistently outperforms other training baselines. Our results demonstrate that effective internal world modeling in LLM agents requires a capability-first training pipeline to achieve grounded and calibrated foresight.
Large language model (LLM) agents operate over long, multi-session interactions in which facts change: a user moves, a price updates, a plan is revised. Acting correctly requires using the current value of a fact and discarding values that have been superseded. We isolate this ability on real conversational data and show that it is a distinct, unsolved failure. On the knowledge-update subset of LongMemEval, replacing an agent's full context with a bounded, self-maintained memory drops accuracy from 92% to 77% even on a frontier model (gpt-5.4), a gap that is statistically significant (paired McNemar p<0.005) and persists across model scale while full-context accuracy saturates near 92%. The bottleneck is therefore memory maintenance, not comprehension, and is not closed by a stronger model. We then ask whether this is merely an undersized memory, and find it is not: as the conversation grows 24x, accuracy falls further (from 68% to 28%), and granting the agent proportionally more memory yields no detectable recovery (28% to 28%, n=25). The failure scales with the length of the conversation, not the compression ratio. We release Supersede, an open reinforcement-learning environment (on the verifiers / prime-rl stack) that turns this measurement into a training signal: agents are rewarded for answering from the current value and penalized for stale ones. Finally, we close the loop and show the gap is trainable: GRPO fine-tuning a small open model (Qwen2.5-3B) on this environment nearly doubles its held-out supersession accuracy on real, unseen conversations (9.0% to 16.7%, a single run), along a monotonic checkpoint curve indicating the learned policy, not the harness, carries the gain. To our knowledge this is the first trainable environment whose reward targets temporal fact-currency, and the first evidence the supersession gap can be trained down, not only measured.
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Large language model (LLM) agents operate over long, multi-session interactions in which facts change: a user moves, a price updates, a plan is revised. Acting correctly requires using the current value of a fact and discarding values that have been superseded. We isolate this ability on real conversational data and show that it is a distinct, unsolved failure. On the knowledge-update subset of LongMemEval, replacing an agent's full context with a bounded, self-maintained memory drops accuracy from 92% to 77% even on a frontier model (gpt-5.4), a gap that is statistically significant (paired McNemar p<0.005) and persists across model scale while full-context accuracy saturates near 92%. The bottleneck is therefore memory maintenance, not comprehension, and is not closed by a stronger model. We then ask whether this is merely an undersized memory, and find it is not: as the conversation grows 24x, accuracy falls further (from 68% to 28%), and granting the agent proportionally more memory yields no detectable recovery (28% to 28%, n=25). The failure scales with the length of the conversation, not the compression ratio. We release Supersede, an open reinforcement-learning environment (on the verifiers / prime-rl stack) that turns this measurement into a training signal: agents are rewarded for answering from the current value and penalized for stale ones. Finally, we close the loop and show the gap is trainable: GRPO fine-tuning a small open model (Qwen2.5-3B) on this environment nearly doubles its held-out supersession accuracy on real, unseen conversations (9.0% to 16.7%, a single run), along a monotonic checkpoint curve indicating the learned policy, not the harness, carries the gain. To our knowledge this is the first trainable environment whose reward targets temporal fact-currency, and the first evidence the supersession gap can be trained down, not only measured.
Research on agent memory has matured rapidly, but almost entirely on the text side: few existing benchmarks ask, in an interactive environment, when an agent genuinely needs to remember what it saw rather than what it could write down. We introduce DMV-Bench (Code: https://github.com/yyyujintang/DMV-Bench), the first interactive benchmark for multimodal-agent visual memory. DMV-Bench is built on a controlled home-furnishing e-commerce catalogue of 1,000 product variants in which a text-leakage contract keeps the discriminative signal of each task in the pixels alone. Across a chain of autonomous shopping sessions, every visited product image carries a unique, pre-rendered incidental cue, and the agent is later asked to recall a particular cued product and navigate to its URL. Inspired by dual-coding theory, we propose DualMem, a memory architecture that maintains a visual and a verbal code in parallel. On DMV-Bench, DualMem outperforms a caption baseline and three recent multimodal agent-memory systems at every chain length J in {5, 10, 15, 50} on both Gemini 2.5 Flash and Qwen2.5-VL-7B, with the lead surviving controls for memory-bank size and encoding-position bias, and an asymmetric dual-coding regime in which vision carries the cue end-to-end while the verbal channel plays a smaller query-grounding role.
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Research on agent memory has matured rapidly, but almost entirely on the text side: few existing benchmarks ask, in an interactive environment, when an agent genuinely needs to remember what it saw rather than what it could write down. We introduce DMV-Bench (Code: https://github.com/yyyujintang/DMV-Bench), the first interactive benchmark for multimodal-agent visual memory. DMV-Bench is built on a controlled home-furnishing e-commerce catalogue of 1,000 product variants in which a text-leakage contract keeps the discriminative signal of each task in the pixels alone. Across a chain of autonomous shopping sessions, every visited product image carries a unique, pre-rendered incidental cue, and the agent is later asked to recall a particular cued product and navigate to its URL. Inspired by dual-coding theory, we propose DualMem, a memory architecture that maintains a visual and a verbal code in parallel. On DMV-Bench, DualMem outperforms a caption baseline and three recent multimodal agent-memory systems at every chain length J in {5, 10, 15, 50} on both Gemini 2.5 Flash and Qwen2.5-VL-7B, with the lead surviving controls for memory-bank size and encoding-position bias, and an asymmetric dual-coding regime in which vision carries the cue end-to-end while the verbal channel plays a smaller query-grounding role.
作者Zhengyuan Liu, Stella Xin Yin, Min-Yen Kan, Nancy F. Chen
We present a conceptual framework for analyzing dialogue in collaborative problem-solving contexts, with an emphasis on the emerging dynamics of human-AI and multi-agent collaboration. As intelligent systems become active agents capable of autonomous reasoning and strategic cooperation, understanding the dialogic interaction during collaborative problem solving is increasingly important for optimizing and evaluating such partnerships. Our framework addresses key limitations in current analytical approaches through a hierarchical two-layer coding scheme that integrates cognitive and non-cognitive problem solving with metacognitive regulatory mechanisms. We demonstrate its effectiveness and generalizability across nine datasets spanning multiple domains, and provide insights into how humans and agents coordinate their knowledge, skills, and efforts to solve complex problems, showing in particular that metacognitive regulation can be an essential discriminator of deeper collaboration.
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We present a conceptual framework for analyzing dialogue in collaborative problem-solving contexts, with an emphasis on the emerging dynamics of human-AI and multi-agent collaboration. As intelligent systems become active agents capable of autonomous reasoning and strategic cooperation, understanding the dialogic interaction during collaborative problem solving is increasingly important for optimizing and evaluating such partnerships. Our framework addresses key limitations in current analytical approaches through a hierarchical two-layer coding scheme that integrates cognitive and non-cognitive problem solving with metacognitive regulatory mechanisms. We demonstrate its effectiveness and generalizability across nine datasets spanning multiple domains, and provide insights into how humans and agents coordinate their knowledge, skills, and efforts to solve complex problems, showing in particular that metacognitive regulation can be an essential discriminator of deeper collaboration.
作者Hashmat Shadab Malik, Anees Ur Rehman Hashmi, Numan Saeed, Muzammal Naseer, Salman Khan, Christoph Lippert
Reasoning in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) has shown strong promise in medical imaging. However, this reasoning is usually free-form text judged only by its final answer, making it hard to interpret and verify, especially in 3D radiology, where a diagnosis should be traceable to evidence in the scan. Existing chest CT question-answering datasets compound this by reducing expert radiology reports to answer-only pairs, dropping the reasoning that links findings to conclusions and omitting the patient history clinicians rely on. As a result, reasoning-capable 3D chest CT MLLMs remain out of reach, as neither the structured supervision needed to train them nor the protocol needed to verify their reasoning yet exists. We introduce CORTEX (Clinically Organized Reasoning and sTructured EXplanation), a structured reasoning benchmark for 3D chest CT. For each question, CORTEX restores the missing reasoning as a four-stage diagnostic trace mirroring a radiologist's workflow: task understanding, visual observation, diagnostic reasoning, and answer synthesis. We generate these traces using frontier large language models with broad medical and general-domain knowledge, then filter and verify them with a stage-level evaluation protocol combining automated rubric scoring with expert radiologist review. Crucially, both the reasoning structure and evaluation rubrics are designed in close collaboration with clinicians. Built on CT-RATE, a large, publicly available chest CT dataset without reasoning annotations, CORTEX comprises 76,177 validated reasoning traces across open-ended VQA, closed-ended VQA, and report generation, providing both the structured supervision and the stage-level evaluation protocol needed to build and evaluate trustworthy reasoning models for 3D chest CT. Our dataset and evaluation code will be made publicly available upon acceptance.
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Reasoning in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) has shown strong promise in medical imaging. However, this reasoning is usually free-form text judged only by its final answer, making it hard to interpret and verify, especially in 3D radiology, where a diagnosis should be traceable to evidence in the scan. Existing chest CT question-answering datasets compound this by reducing expert radiology reports to answer-only pairs, dropping the reasoning that links findings to conclusions and omitting the patient history clinicians rely on. As a result, reasoning-capable 3D chest CT MLLMs remain out of reach, as neither the structured supervision needed to train them nor the protocol needed to verify their reasoning yet exists. We introduce CORTEX (Clinically Organized Reasoning and sTructured EXplanation), a structured reasoning benchmark for 3D chest CT. For each question, CORTEX restores the missing reasoning as a four-stage diagnostic trace mirroring a radiologist's workflow: task understanding, visual observation, diagnostic reasoning, and answer synthesis. We generate these traces using frontier large language models with broad medical and general-domain knowledge, then filter and verify them with a stage-level evaluation protocol combining automated rubric scoring with expert radiologist review. Crucially, both the reasoning structure and evaluation rubrics are designed in close collaboration with clinicians. Built on CT-RATE, a large, publicly available chest CT dataset without reasoning annotations, CORTEX comprises 76,177 validated reasoning traces across open-ended VQA, closed-ended VQA, and report generation, providing both the structured supervision and the stage-level evaluation protocol needed to build and evaluate trustworthy reasoning models for 3D chest CT. Our dataset and evaluation code will be made publicly available upon acceptance.
Industrial advertising recommender models are continuously improved through architecture evolution. Upgrades such as RankMixer, TokenMixer-Large, and MixFormer show that better structures remain a key source of quality and business gains. Yet developing such upgrades in production is expert-intensive and difficult to scale. Existing automation is insufficient: AutoML mainly tunes hyper-parameters, while effective gains often require cross-module changes under strict constraints; generic LLM coding agents optimize for runnable code, but runnable code does not imply a valid recommender architecture. Candidates may pass local tests while causing silent failures that degrade performance. We present NOVA, a level-aware agent harness for verification-aware architecture evolution. NOVA uses an architecture gradient, an SGD-inspired, non-differentiable update signal that aggregates prior modifications, verification diagnostics, metric feedback, and trajectory memory to guide the next modification. A verification cascade checks structure semantics, local executability, offline effectiveness, and online impact; invalid candidates are blocked early, with failure patterns recorded as forbidden directions. L1--L4 task-level control matches automation to task complexity and risk, routing high-risk tasks to Copilot for human oversight. Deployed in an industrial advertising system, NOVA achieves the highest effective pass rate on L2 ScaleUp and L3 Literature-to-Production tasks (54.5% and 60.0%), reduces silent failures compared with coding-agent baselines, and shortens one literature-to-production cycle by over 13x in human-attended time. In online A/B testing, the selected L3 candidate improves GMV on three pCVR objectives by +1.25%, +1.70%, and +2.02%, while reducing pCVR bias by 58.8%, 66.7%, and 37.3%.
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Industrial advertising recommender models are continuously improved through architecture evolution. Upgrades such as RankMixer, TokenMixer-Large, and MixFormer show that better structures remain a key source of quality and business gains. Yet developing such upgrades in production is expert-intensive and difficult to scale. Existing automation is insufficient: AutoML mainly tunes hyper-parameters, while effective gains often require cross-module changes under strict constraints; generic LLM coding agents optimize for runnable code, but runnable code does not imply a valid recommender architecture. Candidates may pass local tests while causing silent failures that degrade performance. We present NOVA, a level-aware agent harness for verification-aware architecture evolution. NOVA uses an architecture gradient, an SGD-inspired, non-differentiable update signal that aggregates prior modifications, verification diagnostics, metric feedback, and trajectory memory to guide the next modification. A verification cascade checks structure semantics, local executability, offline effectiveness, and online impact; invalid candidates are blocked early, with failure patterns recorded as forbidden directions. L1--L4 task-level control matches automation to task complexity and risk, routing high-risk tasks to Copilot for human oversight. Deployed in an industrial advertising system, NOVA achieves the highest effective pass rate on L2 ScaleUp and L3 Literature-to-Production tasks (54.5% and 60.0%), reduces silent failures compared with coding-agent baselines, and shortens one literature-to-production cycle by over 13x in human-attended time. In online A/B testing, the selected L3 candidate improves GMV on three pCVR objectives by +1.25%, +1.70%, and +2.02%, while reducing pCVR bias by 58.8%, 66.7%, and 37.3%.
Root cause analysis (RCA) poses a holistic test of LLM agentic capabilities, such as long-context understanding, multi-step reasoning, and tool use. However, existing datasets suffer from a fundamental gap: they label only the root cause, not the propagation path connecting it to the observed symptom, which largely simplifies the task to naive pattern matching. To support rigorous evaluation, we introduce PAVE, a step-wise labeling protocol that leverages known interventions from fault injection to reconstruct causal propagation paths. The mechanism is forward verification: reasoning from cause to effect rather than inferring backward from symptoms. Applying PAVE yields OpenRCA 2.0 (500 instances), the first cross-system RCA benchmark with step-wise causal annotations for LLM agents. Across 11 frontier LLMs, recovering the exact root-cause set succeeds in only 20.7% of cases on average. To locate where this difficulty lies, we relax the criterion and find what we call the ungrounded diagnosis: agents identify at least one correct root-cause service in 76.0% of cases, but ground that service in a verified causal propagation path to the observed symptom in only 61.5%. Outcome-only evaluation hides this failure mode; step-wise causal ground truth is the missing piece for trustworthy LLM-based RCA agents.
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Root cause analysis (RCA) poses a holistic test of LLM agentic capabilities, such as long-context understanding, multi-step reasoning, and tool use. However, existing datasets suffer from a fundamental gap: they label only the root cause, not the propagation path connecting it to the observed symptom, which largely simplifies the task to naive pattern matching. To support rigorous evaluation, we introduce PAVE, a step-wise labeling protocol that leverages known interventions from fault injection to reconstruct causal propagation paths. The mechanism is forward verification: reasoning from cause to effect rather than inferring backward from symptoms. Applying PAVE yields OpenRCA 2.0 (500 instances), the first cross-system RCA benchmark with step-wise causal annotations for LLM agents. Across 11 frontier LLMs, recovering the exact root-cause set succeeds in only 20.7% of cases on average. To locate where this difficulty lies, we relax the criterion and find what we call the ungrounded diagnosis: agents identify at least one correct root-cause service in 76.0% of cases, but ground that service in a verified causal propagation path to the observed symptom in only 61.5%. Outcome-only evaluation hides this failure mode; step-wise causal ground truth is the missing piece for trustworthy LLM-based RCA agents.
作者Tianyi Men, Zhuoran Jin, Pengfei Cao, Yubo Chen, Kang Liu, Jun Zhao
Multimodal web agents can assist humans in operating repetitive GUI tasks, where effective task planning is essential for decomposing complex tasks into executable actions. While small open source MLLMs are cost efficient and privacy preserving compared with commercial large models, they suffer from weak planning and limited cross website generalization. To address these limitations, we introduce the planning experience exploration and utilization (PEEU) method, which autonomously explores environments to discover experiences and utilizes hindsight experience to synthesize strictly aligned, high level training data. To quantitatively analyze the generalization behaviors driving this performance, we propose the task decomposition hierarchical analysis framework (TDHAF) to systematically study compositional generalization across three task granularities: low, middle and high levels. Our analysis reveals that mastering low level atomic skills does not guarantee high level planning competence, while high level task training yields stronger OOD generalization. Experiments on real world benchmarks demonstrate PEEU's superior effectiveness: our 7B model achieves 30.6% accuracy, outperforming the much larger Qwen2.5-VL-32B model. These demonstrate constructing hindsight high level tasks and leveraging experiences is crucial for OOD planning abilities of small MLLMs.
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Multimodal web agents can assist humans in operating repetitive GUI tasks, where effective task planning is essential for decomposing complex tasks into executable actions. While small open source MLLMs are cost efficient and privacy preserving compared with commercial large models, they suffer from weak planning and limited cross website generalization. To address these limitations, we introduce the planning experience exploration and utilization (PEEU) method, which autonomously explores environments to discover experiences and utilizes hindsight experience to synthesize strictly aligned, high level training data. To quantitatively analyze the generalization behaviors driving this performance, we propose the task decomposition hierarchical analysis framework (TDHAF) to systematically study compositional generalization across three task granularities: low, middle and high levels. Our analysis reveals that mastering low level atomic skills does not guarantee high level planning competence, while high level task training yields stronger OOD generalization. Experiments on real world benchmarks demonstrate PEEU's superior effectiveness: our 7B model achieves 30.6% accuracy, outperforming the much larger Qwen2.5-VL-32B model. These demonstrate constructing hindsight high level tasks and leveraging experiences is crucial for OOD planning abilities of small MLLMs.
Building persistent embodied agents in unstructured environments demands unified orchestration of heterogeneous tools spanning both cyber (APIs, IoT) and physical (manipulation, navigation) domains, coupled with autonomous recovery from physical failures that inevitably arise over extended operation. Existing systems treat these as separate problems: VLM-based planners lack a unified cyber-physical action space, agent frameworks accumulate unbounded context that degrades temporal coherence, and VLA policies execute open-loop without detecting their own failures. We argue that persistent autonomy requires not a monolithic model but a hierarchical asynchronous architecture with explicit separation of planning, memory, and verification. To this end, we present OmniAct, a framework integrating a multimodal semantic planner for skill routing across unified action spaces, an adaptive hierarchical memory with event-boundary-driven compression for sub-linear context growth, and an asynchronous visual preemption engine that closes the semantic loop during physical execution. Across 40 real-world long-horizon tasks on two robotic platforms coordinating four IoT devices, OmniAct achieves consistent improvements in end-to-end success across all complexity levels, maintains near-flat token consumption over under 100k+ accumulated interaction tokens, and elevates mid-scale open-weight models to proprietary-level performance.
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Building persistent embodied agents in unstructured environments demands unified orchestration of heterogeneous tools spanning both cyber (APIs, IoT) and physical (manipulation, navigation) domains, coupled with autonomous recovery from physical failures that inevitably arise over extended operation. Existing systems treat these as separate problems: VLM-based planners lack a unified cyber-physical action space, agent frameworks accumulate unbounded context that degrades temporal coherence, and VLA policies execute open-loop without detecting their own failures. We argue that persistent autonomy requires not a monolithic model but a hierarchical asynchronous architecture with explicit separation of planning, memory, and verification. To this end, we present OmniAct, a framework integrating a multimodal semantic planner for skill routing across unified action spaces, an adaptive hierarchical memory with event-boundary-driven compression for sub-linear context growth, and an asynchronous visual preemption engine that closes the semantic loop during physical execution. Across 40 real-world long-horizon tasks on two robotic platforms coordinating four IoT devices, OmniAct achieves consistent improvements in end-to-end success across all complexity levels, maintains near-flat token consumption over under 100k+ accumulated interaction tokens, and elevates mid-scale open-weight models to proprietary-level performance.
作者Bella Fascendini, Kathryn McGregor, Max D. Gupta, Thomas L. Griffiths
Humans flexibly adapt their reasoning strategies to the requirements of a given problem. Large language models (LLMs) have performed well on many cognitive tasks, however, it is unclear whether this accuracy is a result of pattern matching from training data or flexible reasoning. Here, we introduce a novel paradigm to test this question: the riddle riddle paradigm. Riddle riddles are word problems written to mimic popular riddles, but altered so their answers only require literal interpretations. Identifying correct answers requires looking past the structure of each question and flexibly apply different reasoning strategies based on the content. If LLMs respond to surface features, such as form, a riddle-like structure should cause models to use an inventive reasoning strategy even when a literal interpretation suffices. Alternatively, if LLMs reason based on content, they should flexibly switch strategies when appropriate. Across two experiments with nine state-of-the-art LLMs and 100 human participants, we show humans and LLMs fail on this paradigm in opposite directions. LLMs were far more accurate on genuine riddles than on riddle riddles (84.9% vs. 50.7%); whereas humans showed the reverse effect (50.5% vs. 80.5%). Error analysis shows that 90.8% of LLM errors on riddle riddles (the condition where they show diminished performance) were due to inappropriate use of inventive reasoning while only 57.6% of human errors on genuine riddles were due to overextending literal reasoning. Thus, while both groups make mistakes, reasoning mistakes are made more often by LLMs than by humans. Overall, LLMs' strong performance on genuine riddles may reflect memory retrieval rather than flexible strategy selection, and without stimuli designed to elicit this contrast, it becomes easy to conflate LLM-generated outputs that look like reasoning with genuine reasoning.
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Humans flexibly adapt their reasoning strategies to the requirements of a given problem. Large language models (LLMs) have performed well on many cognitive tasks, however, it is unclear whether this accuracy is a result of pattern matching from training data or flexible reasoning. Here, we introduce a novel paradigm to test this question: the riddle riddle paradigm. Riddle riddles are word problems written to mimic popular riddles, but altered so their answers only require literal interpretations. Identifying correct answers requires looking past the structure of each question and flexibly apply different reasoning strategies based on the content. If LLMs respond to surface features, such as form, a riddle-like structure should cause models to use an inventive reasoning strategy even when a literal interpretation suffices. Alternatively, if LLMs reason based on content, they should flexibly switch strategies when appropriate. Across two experiments with nine state-of-the-art LLMs and 100 human participants, we show humans and LLMs fail on this paradigm in opposite directions. LLMs were far more accurate on genuine riddles than on riddle riddles (84.9% vs. 50.7%); whereas humans showed the reverse effect (50.5% vs. 80.5%). Error analysis shows that 90.8% of LLM errors on riddle riddles (the condition where they show diminished performance) were due to inappropriate use of inventive reasoning while only 57.6% of human errors on genuine riddles were due to overextending literal reasoning. Thus, while both groups make mistakes, reasoning mistakes are made more often by LLMs than by humans. Overall, LLMs' strong performance on genuine riddles may reflect memory retrieval rather than flexible strategy selection, and without stimuli designed to elicit this contrast, it becomes easy to conflate LLM-generated outputs that look like reasoning with genuine reasoning.
Evaluating LLM agents requires dynamic environments that go beyond static reasoning and zero-sum games. Real-world economic interaction is often open-ended and mixed-motive: agents must negotiate, create positive-sum surplus, compete for scarce assets, and plan under delayed returns. We introduce SidConArena, a new benchmark framework for evaluating LLM agents in open-ended, positive-sum bargaining. SidConArena formalizes a multi-player economy as a finite-horizon partially observable stochastic game with three coupled phases: natural-language negotiation with binding trades, deterministic converter-based production, and sealed-bid auctions for long-term assets. The framework combines structured observations, phase-aware agent dispatching, a neural-symbolic action interface, and asynchronous execution, enabling free-form interaction while preserving rule-grounded evaluation. Across homogeneous and heterogeneous tournaments, stronger frontier models achieve higher economic outcomes, yet agents still misvalue resources, bargain passively, and remain limited in long-horizon investment planning.
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Evaluating LLM agents requires dynamic environments that go beyond static reasoning and zero-sum games. Real-world economic interaction is often open-ended and mixed-motive: agents must negotiate, create positive-sum surplus, compete for scarce assets, and plan under delayed returns. We introduce SidConArena, a new benchmark framework for evaluating LLM agents in open-ended, positive-sum bargaining. SidConArena formalizes a multi-player economy as a finite-horizon partially observable stochastic game with three coupled phases: natural-language negotiation with binding trades, deterministic converter-based production, and sealed-bid auctions for long-term assets. The framework combines structured observations, phase-aware agent dispatching, a neural-symbolic action interface, and asynchronous execution, enabling free-form interaction while preserving rule-grounded evaluation. Across homogeneous and heterogeneous tournaments, stronger frontier models achieve higher economic outcomes, yet agents still misvalue resources, bargain passively, and remain limited in long-horizon investment planning.
作者Jintao Huang, Fengqing Jiang, Radha Poovendran, Zhiqiang Lin
We present CyberChainBench, a benchmark for evaluating LLM-based agents on smart contract security across three complementary tasks: vulnerability detection, exploit generation, and patch synthesis. Built from 541 real-world exploit incidents from DeFiHackLabs spanning 9 EVM chains, the benchmark provides end-to-end on-chain evaluation where agents interact with historical blockchain state through isolated evaluation environments orchestrated by Harbor, using tools to read code, trace transactions, and validate exploits on mainnet forks. Each case is anchored to a specific block and includes structured ground truth covering vulnerability type, localization, and attacker profit. Exploits are graded by economic impact on historical forks; patches are validated by replaying historical attacks and legitimate transactions as fail-to-pass test oracles on a proxy-upgradeable subset. We define a five-type vulnerability taxonomy and evaluate multiple agent--model configurations. Results reveal a clear difficulty gradient: the best configuration scores 37.5% on detection, 43.7% on exploitation, but only 23.4% on patching, with the top agent (Codex with GPT-5.5) realizing \$57.4M in total exploit profit across the 200-case exploit set at a cost of $2.39 per case.
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We present CyberChainBench, a benchmark for evaluating LLM-based agents on smart contract security across three complementary tasks: vulnerability detection, exploit generation, and patch synthesis. Built from 541 real-world exploit incidents from DeFiHackLabs spanning 9 EVM chains, the benchmark provides end-to-end on-chain evaluation where agents interact with historical blockchain state through isolated evaluation environments orchestrated by Harbor, using tools to read code, trace transactions, and validate exploits on mainnet forks. Each case is anchored to a specific block and includes structured ground truth covering vulnerability type, localization, and attacker profit. Exploits are graded by economic impact on historical forks; patches are validated by replaying historical attacks and legitimate transactions as fail-to-pass test oracles on a proxy-upgradeable subset. We define a five-type vulnerability taxonomy and evaluate multiple agent--model configurations. Results reveal a clear difficulty gradient: the best configuration scores 37.5% on detection, 43.7% on exploitation, but only 23.4% on patching, with the top agent (Codex with GPT-5.5) realizing \$57.4M in total exploit profit across the 200-case exploit set at a cost of $2.39 per case.
作者Kaicheng Zhang, Wen Ge, Lei Jiang, Weixin Yang, Jordan Langham-Lopez, Jialin Yu, Lukasz Szpruch, Hao Ni
Although large language model agents are increasingly applied to quantitative-finance workflows, their evaluation remains fragmented across isolated tasks, while the financial relevance of benchmark tasks is often overlooked. Yet financial workflows are inherently multi-stage, spanning interdependent tasks such as forecasting, strategy construction, risk management, and trading. Existing platforms typically focus on a single task, and can therefore overstate agent competence and fail to reveal weaknesses in generalization, real-market interaction, and financially meaningful decision-making. We introduce OpenFinGym, a unified gym environment for quantitative-finance agent development that covers forecasting, market generation, real-time trading, and fraud detection under a single execution and verification interface. OpenFinGym additionally provides an automated task-construction pipeline that turns quantitative finance publications into executable task packages; a containerised runtime with a host-side verifier service that supports scalable agent rollouts and prevents runtime train-test leakage; a paper trading engine with a low-latency data-stream design; deferred-resolution support for long-horizon and event-market forecasts; and integration for SFT and RL post-training
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Although large language model agents are increasingly applied to quantitative-finance workflows, their evaluation remains fragmented across isolated tasks, while the financial relevance of benchmark tasks is often overlooked. Yet financial workflows are inherently multi-stage, spanning interdependent tasks such as forecasting, strategy construction, risk management, and trading. Existing platforms typically focus on a single task, and can therefore overstate agent competence and fail to reveal weaknesses in generalization, real-market interaction, and financially meaningful decision-making. We introduce OpenFinGym, a unified gym environment for quantitative-finance agent development that covers forecasting, market generation, real-time trading, and fraud detection under a single execution and verification interface. OpenFinGym additionally provides an automated task-construction pipeline that turns quantitative finance publications into executable task packages; a containerised runtime with a host-side verifier service that supports scalable agent rollouts and prevents runtime train-test leakage; a paper trading engine with a low-latency data-stream design; deferred-resolution support for long-horizon and event-market forecasts; and integration for SFT and RL post-training
Autonomous AI agents may begin to perform consequential, irreversible actions such as clinical prescribing and production software deployment. This paper observes that human institutions have governed powerful autonomous actors not by monitoring their reasoning but by requiring independently attested evidence at the point of consequential action. We formalise this institutional pattern as a computational governance model for AI agent systems. Under the proposed model, an agent retains full autonomy over planning and reasoning but holds no execution authority over designated high-risk actions. Execution is conditional on preconditions that are each independently attested by a separate authoritative source, cryptographically bound to a declared intent, and evaluated by a deterministic policy. Decisions are recorded in a tamper-evident log amenable to independent re-verification. We present a proof-of-concept implementation and illustrate the model with examples from software deployment and clinical prescribing.
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Autonomous AI agents may begin to perform consequential, irreversible actions such as clinical prescribing and production software deployment. This paper observes that human institutions have governed powerful autonomous actors not by monitoring their reasoning but by requiring independently attested evidence at the point of consequential action. We formalise this institutional pattern as a computational governance model for AI agent systems. Under the proposed model, an agent retains full autonomy over planning and reasoning but holds no execution authority over designated high-risk actions. Execution is conditional on preconditions that are each independently attested by a separate authoritative source, cryptographically bound to a declared intent, and evaluated by a deterministic policy. Decisions are recorded in a tamper-evident log amenable to independent re-verification. We present a proof-of-concept implementation and illustrate the model with examples from software deployment and clinical prescribing.
Foundation-model research increasingly needs data about people: user state, personal histories, relationships, contact-like fields, documents, and longitudinal updates. Real user data is difficult to share, perturb, audit, or redistribute responsibly, while independently generated fake fields rarely preserve the cross-field and temporal consistency needed for controlled evaluation. We present PROFILEFOUNDRY, a deterministic generator and fixed reference release of 100,000 adult synthetic Person Objects across eight locales. Each object combines a typed current snapshot, household, family, and employer links, snapshot-aligned events, normalized relational views, and generation provenance. The release contains 709,228 events, 40,338 households, 52,491 employers, and 518,564 directed relationship edges. We report evidence in separate categories: selected population-marginal comparisons, per-object invariant checks, release-wide referential and temporal closure, and coincidence/provenance screens. PROFILEFOUNDRY is not a population-fidelity model, a rendered-text corpus, or a formal privacy mechanism. Instead, it is a responsible synthetic source layer for constructing downstream foundation-model evaluations involving memory, privacy, document understanding, record linkage, and agent state while keeping the synthetic person behind each artifact inspectable
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Foundation-model research increasingly needs data about people: user state, personal histories, relationships, contact-like fields, documents, and longitudinal updates. Real user data is difficult to share, perturb, audit, or redistribute responsibly, while independently generated fake fields rarely preserve the cross-field and temporal consistency needed for controlled evaluation. We present PROFILEFOUNDRY, a deterministic generator and fixed reference release of 100,000 adult synthetic Person Objects across eight locales. Each object combines a typed current snapshot, household, family, and employer links, snapshot-aligned events, normalized relational views, and generation provenance. The release contains 709,228 events, 40,338 households, 52,491 employers, and 518,564 directed relationship edges. We report evidence in separate categories: selected population-marginal comparisons, per-object invariant checks, release-wide referential and temporal closure, and coincidence/provenance screens. PROFILEFOUNDRY is not a population-fidelity model, a rendered-text corpus, or a formal privacy mechanism. Instead, it is a responsible synthetic source layer for constructing downstream foundation-model evaluations involving memory, privacy, document understanding, record linkage, and agent state while keeping the synthetic person behind each artifact inspectable
作者David Akinpelu, Akintonde Abbas, Rereloluwa Alimi, Ayodeji Lana
Agentic benchmarks have emerged across general-purpose and domain-specific settings, including finance, coding, law, and drug discovery, yet energy-domain evaluations remain largely limited to static knowledge recall. This is a critical gap for a sector that requires live data retrieval, specialized regulatory and market knowledge, and multi-step quantitative reasoning under real-world constraints. We present an empirical study of tool-augmented LLM agents on real-world energy market analytics tasks. Our evaluation environment includes 243 expert-curated problems across three categories: (1) Market Data Retrieval and Analysis, (2) Knowledge Retrieval and Interpretation, and (3) Advanced Quantitative Modeling and Decision Analytics. Tasks include price and demand analysis, tariff impact modeling, asset revenue and returns estimation, hedging strategy analysis, and optimization modeling, with problems spanning multiple difficulty levels. Agents are equipped with a configurable suite of domain tools, including live electricity market APIs for major U.S. ISOs, regulatory docket search, utility tariff databases, asset optimization models, and retrieval-augmented generation over energy market documents. We assess agent responses using a multi-dimensional evaluation protocol that scores approach correctness, answer accuracy, attribute alignment, and source validity, with category-aware routing to match scoring criteria to question type. We evaluate both closed-source and open-source LLMs, providing a comparative analysis of how model capability and domain tooling interact in a high-stakes professional domain. Key artifacts are publicly released to support reproducibility and future research.
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Agentic benchmarks have emerged across general-purpose and domain-specific settings, including finance, coding, law, and drug discovery, yet energy-domain evaluations remain largely limited to static knowledge recall. This is a critical gap for a sector that requires live data retrieval, specialized regulatory and market knowledge, and multi-step quantitative reasoning under real-world constraints. We present an empirical study of tool-augmented LLM agents on real-world energy market analytics tasks. Our evaluation environment includes 243 expert-curated problems across three categories: (1) Market Data Retrieval and Analysis, (2) Knowledge Retrieval and Interpretation, and (3) Advanced Quantitative Modeling and Decision Analytics. Tasks include price and demand analysis, tariff impact modeling, asset revenue and returns estimation, hedging strategy analysis, and optimization modeling, with problems spanning multiple difficulty levels. Agents are equipped with a configurable suite of domain tools, including live electricity market APIs for major U.S. ISOs, regulatory docket search, utility tariff databases, asset optimization models, and retrieval-augmented generation over energy market documents. We assess agent responses using a multi-dimensional evaluation protocol that scores approach correctness, answer accuracy, attribute alignment, and source validity, with category-aware routing to match scoring criteria to question type. We evaluate both closed-source and open-source LLMs, providing a comparative analysis of how model capability and domain tooling interact in a high-stakes professional domain. Key artifacts are publicly released to support reproducibility and future research.
The Internet is transitioning from Web3 toward Web4, where autonomous agents serve as independent economic actors. These agents can now hold crypto wallets, execute on-chain trades, and pay for external API calls. This transition calls for a new infrastructure stack capable of supporting key agent operations, including agent-to-tool interaction, agent-to-agent payments, and verifiable agent identity, represented by emerging protocols such as the Model Context Protocol, x402, and EIP-8004. Despite growing industrial interest in these protocols, the real-world Web4 agent ecosystem remains largely underexplored. To bridge this gap, we conduct the first large-scale empirical study of the Web4 ecosystem. Specifically, our study targets three interconnected questions: how Web4 agents are deployed and used in practice; what engineering challenges developers face when building Web4 agents; how current project communities respond to these challenges. To answer these questions, we analyze 99,448 multi-chain identity registrations, 317,596,323 transaction logs, the source code of 341 MCP projects, and 349 filtered GitHub issues. Our findings reveal that autonomous agents have established a highly active machine-to-machine payment economy, processing millions of daily transactions. However, this growth is built on immature infrastructure, including identity/authorization practice, cross-environment operation, and payment interoperability. Our follow-up analysis shows that community responses are visible but unevenly distributed across repositories, and payment interoperability remains the most persistent unresolved bottleneck. Overall, this study reveals a critical gap between the rapid growth of the Web4 agent economy and its fragile underlying infrastructure, highlighting future directions for building a more secure Web4 agent ecosystem.
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The Internet is transitioning from Web3 toward Web4, where autonomous agents serve as independent economic actors. These agents can now hold crypto wallets, execute on-chain trades, and pay for external API calls. This transition calls for a new infrastructure stack capable of supporting key agent operations, including agent-to-tool interaction, agent-to-agent payments, and verifiable agent identity, represented by emerging protocols such as the Model Context Protocol, x402, and EIP-8004. Despite growing industrial interest in these protocols, the real-world Web4 agent ecosystem remains largely underexplored. To bridge this gap, we conduct the first large-scale empirical study of the Web4 ecosystem. Specifically, our study targets three interconnected questions: how Web4 agents are deployed and used in practice; what engineering challenges developers face when building Web4 agents; how current project communities respond to these challenges. To answer these questions, we analyze 99,448 multi-chain identity registrations, 317,596,323 transaction logs, the source code of 341 MCP projects, and 349 filtered GitHub issues. Our findings reveal that autonomous agents have established a highly active machine-to-machine payment economy, processing millions of daily transactions. However, this growth is built on immature infrastructure, including identity/authorization practice, cross-environment operation, and payment interoperability. Our follow-up analysis shows that community responses are visible but unevenly distributed across repositories, and payment interoperability remains the most persistent unresolved bottleneck. Overall, this study reveals a critical gap between the rapid growth of the Web4 agent economy and its fragile underlying infrastructure, highlighting future directions for building a more secure Web4 agent ecosystem.
Large language models are increasingly deployed as agents that solve tasks by interacting with external tool environments. Although recent tool-use benchmarks increasingly cover complex task settings, they still largely assume clean, stable, and trustworthy tool environments, leaving tool-environment unreliability insufficiently examined. We introduce ToolBench-X, a benchmark for evaluating agents under recoverable reliability hazards. ToolBench-X contains executable multi-step tasks across diverse domains and sequential, parallel, and mixed workflows, each paired with deterministic tools and a canonical final answer for automatic evaluation. Starting from clean tool environments, ToolBench-X injects five structured hazard types: Specification Drift, Invocation Error, Execution Failure, Output Drift, and Cross-source Conflict. Crucially, each injected instance remains solvable through at least one valid recovery path, such as retrying, fallback, verification, or cross-checking. Experiments reveal a substantial reliability gap: agents that perform well with reliable tools often fail under recoverable hazards. Further analysis shows that failures are driven less by tool-use volume or inference budget than by limited hazard diagnosis and ineffective recovery. Targeted recovery hints recover many failed tasks, while test-time scaling yields more limited gains. These results suggest that tool-use evaluation should move beyond function-call accuracy toward task completion under unreliable tool environments. The code and data is available at https://github.com/Foreverskyou/ToolBench-X.
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Large language models are increasingly deployed as agents that solve tasks by interacting with external tool environments. Although recent tool-use benchmarks increasingly cover complex task settings, they still largely assume clean, stable, and trustworthy tool environments, leaving tool-environment unreliability insufficiently examined. We introduce ToolBench-X, a benchmark for evaluating agents under recoverable reliability hazards. ToolBench-X contains executable multi-step tasks across diverse domains and sequential, parallel, and mixed workflows, each paired with deterministic tools and a canonical final answer for automatic evaluation. Starting from clean tool environments, ToolBench-X injects five structured hazard types: Specification Drift, Invocation Error, Execution Failure, Output Drift, and Cross-source Conflict. Crucially, each injected instance remains solvable through at least one valid recovery path, such as retrying, fallback, verification, or cross-checking. Experiments reveal a substantial reliability gap: agents that perform well with reliable tools often fail under recoverable hazards. Further analysis shows that failures are driven less by tool-use volume or inference budget than by limited hazard diagnosis and ineffective recovery. Targeted recovery hints recover many failed tasks, while test-time scaling yields more limited gains. These results suggest that tool-use evaluation should move beyond function-call accuracy toward task completion under unreliable tool environments. The code and data is available at https://github.com/Foreverskyou/ToolBench-X.
作者Xihan Xiong, Zelin Li, Wei Wei, Qin Wang, William Knottenbelt, Zhipeng Wang
As autonomous AI agents increasingly transact across organizational boundaries, a fundamental trust challenge emerges: how can an agent assess whether an unknown counterpart is trustworthy? The ERC-8004 protocol addresses this challenge with the first permissionless trust layer for AI agent economies, built around three on-chain registries for Identity, Reputation, and Validation. Despite its rapid adoption, the protocol has not been studied empirically, leaving it unclear whether the information it records provides a trustworthy basis for decision-making. To address this gap, we present the first empirical study of ERC-8004 across three chains: Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain (BSC), and Base, covering the period from protocol deployment through May 13, 2026. We crawl on-chain Identity and Reputation events, off-chain files, and x402 payment transactions. On the identity side, we find that most registrations are placeholders rather than active agents, with only a small fraction (3%, 4%, and 15% across Ethereum, BSC, and Base) exposing a valid ERC-8004 registration file with at least one live service endpoint. On the reputation side, we show that the Registry, as currently deployed, cannot function as a trust signal: values are not commensurable, feedback records are rarely grounded in verifiable interactions, and reputation can be manipulated at minimal cost. Consistent with these design weaknesses, we find that a substantial fraction of reviewers (73.6%, 59.2%, and 90.6% across Ethereum, BSC, and Base) exhibit coordinated Sybil behavior. After removing Sybil-flagged feedback, 15.5%, 72.3%, and 89.4% of rated agents, respectively, are left with no valid feedback. We then turn these findings into concrete recommendations for future revisions of ERC-8004. Our study yields actionable protocol-design implications and establishes an empirical baseline for research on AI agent markets.
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As autonomous AI agents increasingly transact across organizational boundaries, a fundamental trust challenge emerges: how can an agent assess whether an unknown counterpart is trustworthy? The ERC-8004 protocol addresses this challenge with the first permissionless trust layer for AI agent economies, built around three on-chain registries for Identity, Reputation, and Validation. Despite its rapid adoption, the protocol has not been studied empirically, leaving it unclear whether the information it records provides a trustworthy basis for decision-making. To address this gap, we present the first empirical study of ERC-8004 across three chains: Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain (BSC), and Base, covering the period from protocol deployment through May 13, 2026. We crawl on-chain Identity and Reputation events, off-chain files, and x402 payment transactions. On the identity side, we find that most registrations are placeholders rather than active agents, with only a small fraction (3%, 4%, and 15% across Ethereum, BSC, and Base) exposing a valid ERC-8004 registration file with at least one live service endpoint. On the reputation side, we show that the Registry, as currently deployed, cannot function as a trust signal: values are not commensurable, feedback records are rarely grounded in verifiable interactions, and reputation can be manipulated at minimal cost. Consistent with these design weaknesses, we find that a substantial fraction of reviewers (73.6%, 59.2%, and 90.6% across Ethereum, BSC, and Base) exhibit coordinated Sybil behavior. After removing Sybil-flagged feedback, 15.5%, 72.3%, and 89.4% of rated agents, respectively, are left with no valid feedback. We then turn these findings into concrete recommendations for future revisions of ERC-8004. Our study yields actionable protocol-design implications and establishes an empirical baseline for research on AI agent markets.
作者Aradhana Nayak, Mussadiq Nazeer, Wang Peng, Feng Liu
LLM agents are increasingly being used to automate tasks for users within an open GUI environment. They inevitably encounter screens containing user-sensitive information, for which takeover of task execution by the user is highly desirable or even necessary. State-of-the-art LLM-driven agents are usually fine-tuned to complete tasks regardless of the safety implications of their actions. This makes their real-world deployment difficult and adversely affects the reliability. Therefore, it is crucial to identify and categorize user-sensitive states and define user-sensitive queries. This dataset would be to engineers to recognize and request handover to the user in critical scenarios. This short paper develops an explorer agent that systematically explores the query space starting from one demonstrated task to identify queries that, if executed, would lead to user-sensitive states in a GUI environment.
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LLM agents are increasingly being used to automate tasks for users within an open GUI environment. They inevitably encounter screens containing user-sensitive information, for which takeover of task execution by the user is highly desirable or even necessary. State-of-the-art LLM-driven agents are usually fine-tuned to complete tasks regardless of the safety implications of their actions. This makes their real-world deployment difficult and adversely affects the reliability. Therefore, it is crucial to identify and categorize user-sensitive states and define user-sensitive queries. This dataset would be to engineers to recognize and request handover to the user in critical scenarios. This short paper develops an explorer agent that systematically explores the query space starting from one demonstrated task to identify queries that, if executed, would lead to user-sensitive states in a GUI environment.
作者Thiago Thomas, Gabriel de Oliveira Ramos, Felipe Meneguzzi
Multi-agent goal recognition asks an observer to jointly infer which agents act together and what each team is trying to achieve, so the hypothesis space grows combinatorially with the number of team partitions and goals per team. Real applications such as drone surveillance and collaborative robotics expose only the agents' trajectory, which forces the observer to rank team-goal hypotheses from behavior alone. Multi-Agent Goal Recognition with Branch-and-Bound (MAGR-BB) addresses this setting with a shared team- and goal-conditioned policy used as the scoring model inside a factorized branch-and-bound search. On a controlled multi-agent Blocksworld benchmark, MAGR-BB returns the same top-ranked hypothesis as exhaustive search throughout the trajectory while cutting hypothesis materialization by orders of magnitude and reducing cumulative recognition runtime substantially.
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Multi-agent goal recognition asks an observer to jointly infer which agents act together and what each team is trying to achieve, so the hypothesis space grows combinatorially with the number of team partitions and goals per team. Real applications such as drone surveillance and collaborative robotics expose only the agents' trajectory, which forces the observer to rank team-goal hypotheses from behavior alone. Multi-Agent Goal Recognition with Branch-and-Bound (MAGR-BB) addresses this setting with a shared team- and goal-conditioned policy used as the scoring model inside a factorized branch-and-bound search. On a controlled multi-agent Blocksworld benchmark, MAGR-BB returns the same top-ranked hypothesis as exhaustive search throughout the trajectory while cutting hypothesis materialization by orders of magnitude and reducing cumulative recognition runtime substantially.
作者Divake Kumar, Sina Tayebati, Devashri Naik, Amanda Sofie Rios, Nilesh Ahuja, Omesh Tickoo, Ranganath Krishnan, Amit Ranjan Trivedi
Computer-use agents turn vision-language model (VLM) predictions into executable GUI clicks, so reliable uncertainty estimates are essential for rejection, calibration, miss-severity ranking, and spatial safety regions. Yet evidence on post-hoc uncertainty quantification (UQ) for these agents is fragmented across isolated model and dataset pairs, leaving it unclear whether UQ rankings stay stable when the agent, benchmark, or observable interface changes. We present Argus, a cross-regime benchmark for post-hoc UQ in single-step executable GUI grounding: a 27-method open-weight matrix over 4 VLM agents and 4 datasets, plus an 8-method closed-source matrix across 3 frontier vendors where logits, hidden states, and attention maps are unavailable. Evaluated methods span logit-based scores, sampling and consistency measures, hidden-state and density estimators (Mahalanobis, SAPLMA), attention-based scores, P(True) and verbalised-confidence prompting, and split-conformal prediction. The main finding is selective transfer: UQ rankings are stable across datasets for a fixed model, but degrade across model classes and observable interfaces. Hidden-state and density methods are the most stable open-weight family, while CoCoA-1MCA, Focus, sampling-based scores, and verbalised self-assessment win in specific regimes. Within-model ranking transfer is strong (Spearman rho up to 0.969), but cross-tier transfer to closed-source vendors averages only +0.08, so closed-source UQ should be reranked on the target rather than extrapolated. Conformal click regions show score-level discrimination is not enough for deployment: locally weighted disks shrink radii by 40-60% when the plug-in UQ is calibrated, but coverage degrades under calibration-test or interface mismatch. We release per-item records, calibration/test splits, UQ scores, and analysis scripts for regime-aware UQ selection in GUI agents.
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Computer-use agents turn vision-language model (VLM) predictions into executable GUI clicks, so reliable uncertainty estimates are essential for rejection, calibration, miss-severity ranking, and spatial safety regions. Yet evidence on post-hoc uncertainty quantification (UQ) for these agents is fragmented across isolated model and dataset pairs, leaving it unclear whether UQ rankings stay stable when the agent, benchmark, or observable interface changes. We present Argus, a cross-regime benchmark for post-hoc UQ in single-step executable GUI grounding: a 27-method open-weight matrix over 4 VLM agents and 4 datasets, plus an 8-method closed-source matrix across 3 frontier vendors where logits, hidden states, and attention maps are unavailable. Evaluated methods span logit-based scores, sampling and consistency measures, hidden-state and density estimators (Mahalanobis, SAPLMA), attention-based scores, P(True) and verbalised-confidence prompting, and split-conformal prediction. The main finding is selective transfer: UQ rankings are stable across datasets for a fixed model, but degrade across model classes and observable interfaces. Hidden-state and density methods are the most stable open-weight family, while CoCoA-1MCA, Focus, sampling-based scores, and verbalised self-assessment win in specific regimes. Within-model ranking transfer is strong (Spearman rho up to 0.969), but cross-tier transfer to closed-source vendors averages only +0.08, so closed-source UQ should be reranked on the target rather than extrapolated. Conformal click regions show score-level discrimination is not enough for deployment: locally weighted disks shrink radii by 40-60% when the plug-in UQ is calibrated, but coverage degrades under calibration-test or interface mismatch. We release per-item records, calibration/test splits, UQ scores, and analysis scripts for regime-aware UQ selection in GUI agents.